Why 비트코인’s 63% 장기보유 wave isn’t the mega bull signal everyone thinks it is
The one-year share rose 0. 98 percentage points in a month while adjacent age bands shifted around the threshold.
비트코인’s share of supply last moved at least one year ago reached 63. 3% on Sept. 18, up 0. 98 percentage points from 62. 32% on Aug. 18, according to Maketo’s 장기보유-wave data.
장기보유 waves group 비트코인’s unspent transaction outputs into age bands based on their last on-chain movement. The rising one-year share therefore shows that more supply now sits in older bands. Current-month buying and deliberate withdrawal from the market require separate evidence.
Theunderlying bandspoint to a specific mechanism. Coins that last moved roughly a year ago can enter the one-to-two-year bracket simply by remaining still long enough to cross the boundary.
The one-to-two-year band increased to 14. 57% of supply from 13. 52% between Aug. 18 and Sept. 18, a gain of 1. 05 percentage points. That was the largest positive change among the cohorts already older than one year.
Over the same period, the six-to-twelve-month band fell to 17. 53% from 19. 10%. Glassnode’s Sept. 18 snapshotshowed the same latest values for both bands.
The paired moves are consistent with coins crossing the one-year boundary. Each band is a net share after coins age into it, age out of it or move on-chain and reset to the youngest cohort, leaving the identity and gross flow of the underlying units unresolved.
Recent movement also eased. Coins last moved within one month accounted for 7. 03% of supply on Sept. 18, down 0. 27 percentage points from 7. 30% a month earlier.
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출처: CryptoSlate